Thursday, August 17, 2006


This from today’s The Nation:

Experts see baht at 35.50 per dollar

The Thai baht is expected to strengthen further - even test the Bt35.50 resistance level against the US dollar - because the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is unlikely to buck the global currency trend and seeks only to ensure that the baht's adjustment to the dollar's depreciation is consistent with other Asian currencies, experts said yesterday.

Robin Wilkin, a JP Morgan Chase technical strategist in London, was quoted by Reuters as saying the baht could potentially rise a further 5-6 per cent against the US dollar before meeting resistance on the charts.

He said he expected a move towards between Bt36.50 and Bt35.50, representing the baht's strongest point since 1998-99. After breaking through the Bt37.44 level last week, the baht should be stronger and the US dollar's bearish position confirmed.

You can read the complete article *HERE* if they keep it up for any length of time.

In the US there are a group of stock market investors called contrarians. What they do is assemble advice from “experts,” find out what the majority is thinking, and then do the opposite. The theory is that “experts” are more often wrong than right. The theory is that “experts” only endorse a trend when it is nearly over.

Are the contrarians right? Near the tops or bottoms of markets they are nearly always right. That is to say, the “experts” are wrong.

Will that happen with the value of the Thai baht? I can only hope. The strengthening of the baht would seem to make me richer on paper because the large majority of my current assets are here in Thailand. But, in reality, I lose hundreds of dollars every month because of the unfavorable exchange rate.

It would be good for me and Thailand if this contrarian is right.


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